What a market is and what the % means

A market is a question about something that hasn’t happened yet, with 2 to 6 possible answers. For example: “Will Flamengo win the final?”, with “Yes” and “No”.

Each answer has a price between $0 and $1, and the % you see is that price: if “Yes” is at 65%, a “Yes” share costs about $0.65. That’s why the % also reads as the chance the market gives that answer. Across all the answers, they add up to 100% (or close to it, after rounding).

The price moves with every buy and every sale: when someone buys an answer, its price goes up and the others go down.

When the market ends, each share of the winning answer pays $1 and the others pay nothing.

In a pre-market, the % shows as “Early interest”. It shows how the committed money is split, and it isn’t a live chance yet.

Every market opens only after the Predik team approves it, and for now the same team creates all of them.

Buying and selling

Pick an answer, enter how much you want to spend and confirm. The minimum buy is $1.

In the answers list, the “If it wins” column shows something like $1$1.52: if you buy $1 of that answer now and it wins, you collect $1.52. That’s because $1 buys about 1.5 shares, and each one pays $1. That $1 already includes the fee.

The figure is for a $1 buy at the current price. If you buy more, the price rises as you buy and you get a bit less per dollar. Before you confirm, the buy panel shows how many shares you get, the fee and what you’d collect if it wins.

If the price moves more than your tolerance (the “Slippage tolerance” under the panel’s “Trading details”) before the buy confirms, the buy doesn’t go through and your money doesn’t move.

You can sell your shares while the market is live, until its closing time, except during a pause. You get the price at that moment, which drops as you sell: if you sell a lot, you get a bit less for each one. It can be more or less than you paid, and the money goes straight to your wallet.

Once the market’s closing time arrives, nobody can buy or sell: all that’s left is to wait for the result.

Fees

You only pay a fee when you buy in a live market: 1% of the amount, already included in what you enter. If you buy $10, $10 comes out of your wallet in total: about $0.10 is the fee and the rest buys shares.

Selling has no fee, and neither does committing in a pre-market.

Collecting winnings or refunds and sending USDC from your wallet carry no Predik fee, and Predik pays the network fee (gas) as a courtesy (see “Your wallet and your funds” below).

The buy fee is split between Predik (70%) and whoever created the market (30%).

Also, when a market resolves, what’s left in its pool after paying $1 for each winning share goes to Predik. If a live market is voided, what’s left after the refunds goes to Predik too.

Pre-market and graduation

Before it opens, every market goes through a pre-market. People commit USDC to the answer they think will win, and that money is what gets the market going.

To open, the market has to reach two goals: a total committed (never less than $100) and a number of participants (never fewer than 10). The market shows how far it is from each.

You can commit from $1, and nobody can commit more than 33% of the market’s money goal. What you commit can’t be sold or withdrawn while the pre-market lasts.

The market graduates the moment it reaches both goals and goes live: from then on, anyone can buy and sell.

When it graduates, what you committed turns into shares of your answer, which you can keep or sell. How many you get depends on when you joined: each answer’s price rises with every commitment to it, so whoever commits earlier gets more shares per dollar. In total, the people who committed to an answer split 0.99 shares for every dollar committed to it, so committing doesn’t guarantee one share per dollar.

Every pre-market has a deadline, shown on the market and never later than the event. If it doesn’t reach both goals by then, the market is voided and you get back everything you committed.

That refund isn’t automatic: first the market is voided (in the app the Predik team does it, though anyone can do it in the contract), then you collect it from the market.

How results are decided

Results are decided by the Predik team, by hand, using the public source each market names under “Rules” → “How it resolves” (for example, the organizer’s official result). We don’t use automated oracles or votes.

From the closing time on, the team can publish the proposed result. That opens a dispute window, and nobody gets paid while it’s open.

The window lasts 48 hours, 2 hours or 60 seconds, depending on the market type. The type is fixed when the market is created, and during the window the market shows how much time is left.

See a mistake? Email support@predik.io before the window closes, with the market link, the result you think is right and the source that shows it. Disputing costs nothing and needs no vote.

The team reviews the evidence and can correct the result while the window is still open. A correction doesn’t extend the window, so on short windows, write as soon as you spot the mistake.

Once the window closes, the result can no longer be corrected. It’s then confirmed on the blockchain (in the app the Predik team does it, though anyone can do it in the contract), and from then on you can collect.

If the event doesn’t happen or its result can’t be verified, the team can report it as cancelled. That report has the same dispute window and, once it’s confirmed, the market is voided.

If nobody proposes a result within 14 days after the close, or a proposed result isn’t confirmed within 14 days after its window ends, the market can be voided (in the app the Predik team does it, though anyone can do it in the contract).

When a market that was already live is voided, you don’t get back what you paid: each share is refunded at its last price, the one it had when trading stopped, and that can be more or less than you paid. If you committed in the pre-market, you can get back much less than you put in: for example, in a two-answer market split evenly where nobody traded, you get back about half on average. What’s left in the pool goes to Predik.

Collecting winnings and refunds

Winnings and refunds don’t arrive on their own: you have to collect them.

When a market you took part in ends and you have money to collect, the notifications bell and your Portfolio show it under “Ready to collect”. You can collect from there or from the market page.

What you collect goes straight to your wallet, in USDC: there’s nothing to withdraw.

How much you collect: $1 for each share of the winning answer; for a voided pre-market, everything you committed; for a voided live market, your shares at their last price, which can be much less than you put in (see “How results are decided”).

Collecting is never paused, and the contract sets no deadline for it.

Your wallet and your funds

You sign in with your email, and your own wallet is created on Monad through Dynamic, the service you sign in with. You control it: Predik has no access to the money in it.

When you buy or commit, that USDC leaves your wallet and is held by PredikVault, an open-source contract on Monad, not by a Predik account. That contract is what pays sales, winnings and refunds.

Predik pays the network fee (gas) for what you do in the app, so you don’t need MON, Monad’s token. It’s a courtesy Predik can limit; if it ever can’t cover it, the app tells you.

To add USDC, tap “Deposit” in your Portfolio; to move it to another address, tap “Send”.

In Settings → “Wallet and security”, “View private key” shows the key that signs for your wallet, so you can keep it as a backup. Never share it: whoever has it controls your wallet. Predik will never ask for your key.

Your wallet is created when you sign in with your email. If you import your key into another wallet, such as MetaMask, it opens the same address you see in Predik, with your balance.

What Predik can do: approve markets, publish results (or report that an event was cancelled, which voids the market) and pause buys, sales and commitments, on every market or on one. While a pause lasts, you can’t sell.

It can also turn on an emergency mode, in which refunds of voided markets can be paid according to a list Predik publishes. A wrong result or misuse of these powers can make you lose what you have in a market. The Terms explain all of its powers and risks.

What Predik can’t do: set prices by hand or pause collecting your winnings and refunds.

Predik’s contracts are open source, but they haven’t been audited by an independent third party. Prediction markets involve risk, and nothing on Predik is financial advice.

Support

Questions, a problem, or a result you think is wrong? Email us at support@predik.io: it’s our only support channel. We don’t give support on social media or by private message.

If it’s about a payment, include the market link and your wallet address. Never send your private key.

The legal details are in the Terms of Service and the Privacy Policy.